University of Isfahan Taxonomy and Biosystematics 3115-9001 13 46 2021 05 22 Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability and Distribution Model of the Critically Endangered Newt, Neurergus Derjugini Nesterov, 1916 (Urodela: Salamandridae) from Contemporary Period to 2030 اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر پراکنش و مطلوبیت زیستگاه سمندر به‌‌شدت در خطر انقراض، Neurergus derjugini Nesterov, 1916 (دم‌‌داران: سالاماندریده): از دورۀ معاصر تا 2030 93 110 25887 10.22108/tbj.2021.128230.1158 EN Rasoul Karamiani Assistant Professor, Department of Biology, Faculty of Sciences, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran Journal Article 2021 04 18 Evaluating the role of climate changes on species distributions has attracted considerable research interest. The Kurdistan newt (<em>Neurergus derjugini</em>) is one of the critically endangered species in the IUCN Red List, which is distributed in the Avroman Mountains in Iran, on the Iraqi-Turkish border. Nowadays, the population of this species is declining and under serious threat due to several factors, including climate change. In the present study, by using the maximum entropy approach (MaxEnt), based on bioclimatic (precipitation and temperature) and topographical (altitude and slope) variables, the suitable habitats and the potential distribution areas in the contemporary and the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the future (2030) distribution were modeled for the Kurdistan newt, <em>N. derjugini</em>. Precipitation of the coldest quarter (38.8%), slope (26.8%) and temperature annual range of the year 13.6%) were the most important factors shaping the distribution of <em>N. derjugini</em> in the contemporary period. For the future, in RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively, scenarios precipitation of the coldest quarter (43.8% and 42.7%), precipitation seasonality (28% and 30.6%) and temperature seasonality (20.08% and 24.2%) were the most important factors forming the distribution species. As it seems, climatic change has been responsible for fragmentation and destruction of habitats <em>N. derjugini</em> in the present and the future, although human activity in the destruction and change of habitats cannot be ignored. https://tbj.ui.ac.ir/article_25887_6bda2cb82747e41504b0b038ccb1db26.pdf